Saturday, June 23, 2012

Missing News: McKitrick on climate models

Nothing thus far on the ABC about this new research paper by Ross McKitrick:
McKitrick, Ross R. and Lise Tole (2012) “Evaluating Explanatory Models of the Spatial Pattern of Surface Climate Trends using Model Selection and Bayesian Averaging Methods” Climate Dynamics, 2012, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1418-9

Ross has a series of articles in the Financial Post outlining the findings:
Junk Science Week: Climate models fail reality test
"Just how good are climate models at predicting regional patterns of climate change? I had occasion to survey this literature as part of a recently completed research project on the subject. The simple summary is that, with few exceptions, climate models not only fail to do better than random numbers, in some cases they are actually worse."

Climate reality check
"The three climate models consistently identified as having explanatory power were from China, Russia and a U.S. lab called NCAR. Climate models from Norway, Canada, Australia, Germany, France, Japan and the U.K., as well as American models from Princeton and two U.S. government labs (NASA and NOAA), failed to exhibit any explanatory power for the spatial pattern of surface temperature trends in any test, alone or in any combination."

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