Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Marcott: Another Gergis moment

Search for "Gergis" on the ABC site through Google provides 2 pages of results. The first story is:
"Last 50 years were Australia's hottest: study". It's not until the very end of the article that the following editorial note appears in a smaller font:
Editor's note (June 21): Since this story was originally broadcast, errors have been identified in aspects of the data processing which may affect the results of this study. As a result, publication has been delayed and the research has been withdrawn from online publication. Professor Karoly says the data will be recalculated, peer reviewed and published in due course.

The world is still waiting for this deeply flawed study to be published. ABC ignored reporting on the manner in which the paper was found to be flawed. Those interested might like to re-visit relevant posts at Climate Audit

In the meantime in early March ABC uncritically re-published an AFP article that reported on a new study proclaiming:
"We already knew that on a global scale, Earth is warmer today than it was over much of the past 2,000 years," said Shaun Marcott, the lead author of the study, which was published in Science.
"Now we know that it is warmer than most of the past 11,300 years."

Through the tireless efforts of Steve McIntyre we now know that the specular uptick at the end of Marcott's temperature graph that lead to the alarming claims, is an artefact of an inappropriate statistical methodology, It seems the dates of sediments from cores used in the study were shifted in time up to 1000 years. This effectively shifted warming of the Medieval Warm Period into the modern period. Results that showed cooling were truncated from the period of the uptick. Anyone smell the cherries?

How long now to wait for the ABC to comprehensively report on the issue? 

Perhaps this time around rather than adding a footnote, ABC's "journalists" might take the time to fully investigate and report on the matter. However with activists in charge, we won't be holding our breath.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Lies of the climate commission: Part 16 "bald faced liars"

Professor Roger Pielke Jnr has a piece on the commission's latest effort to misrepresent the science of climate change. As Andrew Bolt says: time they were sacked. Perhaps the public can also be refunded their ridiculous salaries.

Read the whole article at Roger's blog, some excerpts below.

Thou Shall Not Critique the Australian Climate Commission

Badly misrepresent? At no point do Crompton and McAneney ever "assert that the Commission wrongly used insurance losses in the Angry Summer report." Sorry, but this is a bald-faced lie from the Commission. Crompton and McAneney accurately state that the report refers to the "significant impacts of extreme weather on property" during the "angry summer." You can see a tweet below from the Commission which refers uncritically to another recent piece at The Conversation, one that is chock full of scientific inaccuracies. Apparently being completely wrong did not merit a press release, but I digress.

The statement by Will Steffen, a scientist speaking for the government in his official capacity on the climate commission, beggars belief -- "opportunistic and unbecoming of a research institution." The comment, which explicitly makes reference to the university as a whole, brings to mind the time that Richard Nixon demanded that all funding for MIT be cut of because he didn't like its politics.

There is actually nothing more becoming of a research institution than researchers willing to engage the public with the results of their scientific research. In democracies, it is OK to crtiique government -- in fact, governance is improved through such critique. There is nothing more offensive than a government that attacks researchers for the temerity to offer legitimate critique. In the US, we saw how the Bush Administration learned that lesson the hard way. It looks like the Climate Commission hasn't taken note.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Lies of the Climate Commission: Part 15 - The disgruntled summer

Some stats of extreme temperatures from the BOM listed below. Odd that in a year the climate was on"steriods" and the "Summer was Angry" ( friend ...perhaps "like an old man trying to send back soup in a deli") that 2012 and 2013 seem to be MIA. Perhaps not that angry after all. Just a little disgruntled perhaps? (from 0:48)

Hottest Day in December Australia:

Official records for Australia in December

Records valid as of 31 January 2013
DateStation NameStateStation
149.524 December 1972Birdsville Police StationQLD3800247-25.90139.35
249.421 December 2011RoebourneWA403512-20.78117.15
349.222 December 2011Onslow AirportWA501711-21.67115.11
449.123 December 1972MoombaSA1709639-28.11140.21
549.022 December 1972MarreeSA1703150-29.65138.06
549.006 December 1981Birdsville Police StationQLD3800247-25.90139.35
549.021 December 2011Roebourne AeroWA409011-20.76117.16

Hottest day in January

Official records for Australia in January

Records valid as of 31 January 2013
DateStation NameStateStation
150.702 January 1960Oodnadatta AirportSA17043117-27.56135.45
250.303 January 1960Oodnadatta AirportSA17043117-27.56135.45
349.803 January 1979Mundrabilla StationWA1100820-31.84127.86
349.813 January 1979Forrest AeroWA11004156-30.84128.11
549.710 January 1939Menindee Post OfficeNSW4701961-32.39142.42

Note Feb yet to be updated. here t'is:

Official records for Australia in February

Records valid as of 28 February 2013
DateStation NameStateStation
150.519 February 1998MardieWA500811-21.19115.98
249.821 February 1998Emu Creek StationWA6072111-23.03115.04
349.416 February 1998Emu Creek StationWA6072111-23.03115.04
449.209 February 1977MardieWA500811-21.19115.98
549.118 February 1998RoebourneWA403512-20.78117.15

And the National tally, not a single 2012 or 2013!


Highest temperature

StateTemperature (°C)DatePlace nameLatitudeLongitude
South Australia50.72 January 1960Oodnadatta-27.56135.45
Western Australia50.519 February 1998Mardie-21.19115.98
New South Wales49.710 January 1939Menindee-32.39142.42
Queensland49.524 December 1972Birdsville-25.90139.35
Victoria48.87 February 2009Hopetoun-35.72142.36
Northern Territory48.31 & 2 January 1960Finke-25.58134.57
Tasmania42.230 January 2009Scamander-41.46148.26

Lowest temperature

StateTemperature (°C)DatePlace nameLatitudeLongitude
New South Wales-23.029 June 1994Charlotte Pass-36.43148.33
Tasmania-13.030 June 1983Butlers Gorge-42.28146.27
-13.030 June 1983Shannon-42.05146.75
-13.030 June 1983Tarraleah-42.30146.45
Victoria-11.715 June 1965Omeo-37.10147.60
-11.73 July 1970Falls Creek-36.87147.28
Queensland-10.623 June 1961Stanthorpe-28.66151.93
-10.612 July 1965The Hermitage-28.21152.10
South Australia-8.220 July 1976Yongala-33.03138.75
Northern Territory-7.517 July 1976Alice Springs-23.80133.89
Western Australia-7.217 August 2008Eyre-32.25126.00

Rainfall - highest daily

StateRainfall (mm)DatePlace nameLatitudeLongitude
Queensland907.03 February 1893Crohamhurst-26.81152.87
New South Wales809.221 February 1954Dorrigo-30.34152.71
Western Australia747.03 April 1898Whim Creek-20.84117.84
Northern Territory544.615 April 1963Roper Valley-14.93134.01
Victoria375.022 March 1983Tanybryn-38.68143.68
Tasmania352.022 March 1974Cullenswood-41.59148.13
South Australia272.614 March 1989Motpena-31.19138.28

Rainfall - highest monthly

StateRainfall (mm)MonthPlace nameLatitudeLongitude
Queensland5387.0January 1979Bellenden Ker (Top Station)-17.29145.92
New South Wales1620.6January 1974Upper Crystal Creek-28.28153.31
Western Australia1540.4January 2011Kuri Bay-15.49124.52
Northern Territory1252.1January 2003Redbank Mine-17.19137.74
Victoria989.6July 1964Falls Creek-36.87147.28
Tasmania984.0October 1988Mount Mawson-42.68146.58
South Australia676.0March 1989Balcanoona-30.53139.30

Rainfall - highest annual

StateRainfall (mm)YearPlace nameLatitudeLongitude
Queensland12461.02000Bellenden Ker (Top Station)-17.29145.92
New South Wales4539.71950Tallowwood Point-30.35152.87
Tasmania4504.11948Lake Margaret Dam-41.99145.57
Victoria3738.51956Falls Creek-36.86147.28
Northern Territory2953.22000Channel Point-13.17130.12
Western Australia2380.62000Kimberley Coastal Camp-14.58125.91
South Australia1852.61917Aldgate-35.02138.75

Call that an Angry Summer? Now this is an angry summer (and spring and Autumn!)...

Maximum temperatures at Marble Bar, 1923/1924

Maximum temperatures at Marble Bar, 1 October 1923 to 28 April 1924 showing the record number of days over 100°F (37.8°C).